Electoral Survey: Bobi Wine scores 59.1%, leading Museveni with 23.2 %

NATIONAL ELECTORAL SURVEY
Conducted by Market Intelligence Group (MIG)
November 2020

Final Summary of Findings

Methodology

-Stratified random sampling (with sub-regions, urban, peri-urban and rural settings forming the multiple strata while selection of respondents was random but with a filter of registered voter).

-70% of respondents were 18-29 and 30% were 30+ in line with the National Housing and Population Census (NHPC) report from Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) (2014) on our population structure.

-Gender was equally weighted meaning that 50% of the respondents were male and 50% female almost in tandem with the NHPC report (UBOS, 2014).

-All 146 districts visited to have a more accurate representation.

-All respondents were registered voters to have a more accurate representation.

Findings

1. Out of 11 presidential candidates nominated at the Independent Electoral Commission, only 8 were listed by respondents. The nominated candidates were:

Yoweri Kaguta Tibuhaburwa Museveni
Nobert Mao
Kyagulanyi Robert Sentamu
Mugisha Muntu
Patrick Oboi Amuriat
Nancy Rose Kalembe
Henry Tumukunde
John Katumba
Willy Mayambala
Fred Mwesigye
Joseph Kabuleta

BUT
The respondents did not list Willy Mayambala, Fred Mwesigye and Joseph Kabuleta in any of the sub-regions.

1. The results show that Kyagulanyi Robert Sentamu is the leading candidate with the highest score of 59.1% while Tumukunde has the lowest score of 0.2%.

Kyagulanyi also leads his closest challenger (Museveni) by 23.2% while he is ahead of the last candidate (Tumukunde) by 58.9%

1. Kyagulanyi’s best performance is in Elgon (Bugisu) sub-region, and his worst in Ankole sub-region.

Museveni’s best performance is Ankole sub-region, and his worst in Buganda sub-region.

Amuriat’s best performance is in Teso sub-region and his worst is in Karamoja sub-region.

Katumba’s best performance is in Buganda sub-region and his worst performance is in Acholi sub-region and Ankole sub-region.

Muntu’s best performance is in Kigezi sub-region and Buganda sub-region, and his worst performance is Ankole sub-region.

Kalembe’s best performance is in Busoga sub-region and her worst performance is Kampala sub-region.

Mao’s best performance is in Acholi sub-region and his worst performance is in Tooro sub-region.

Tumukunde’s best performance is in Kampala sub-region and his worst is in Busoga sub-region.

These best and worst results are for where the candidates were listed.

1. With the exception of Kyagulanyi and Museveni, the 6 other candidates are not listed by voters in 6 sub-regions of Bunyoro, Elgon (Bugisu), Lango, Rwenzururu, Sebei, and West Nile.

This presents the contest as a two horse race between Kyagulanyi and Museveni.

1. Kyagulanyi leads in 12 out of the 16 sub regions (namely Buganda, Bukedi, Bunyoro, Busoga, Elgon (Bugisu), Kampala, Karamoja, Kigezi, Lango, , Tooro, Rwenzururu, West Nile) while his closest challenger Museveni leads in 4 out of the 16 sub regions (namely: Acholi, Ankole, Sebei, and Teso).
2. Kyagulanyi leads amongst both age categories, i.e. 18-29 and 30+.
3. Kyagulanyi leads amongst both gender categories, i.e. male and female.
4. 10 out of 16 sub-regions listed unemployment as the most pressing problem for Uganda today and which they want whoever wins the election to address.

West Nile had the highest number of respondents indicating unemployment.

5 out of the 16 sub-regions listed poor roads as the most pressing problem that should be addressed. By poor roads they mean roads within their communities and not the major highways.

1 out of the 16 sub-regions listed poor health facilities as the most pressing problem to be addressed.

Note:

-These are not votes, but the result of a survey conducted in November
-Candidates have been on the campaign trail and a lot of work has been done by all of them. The numbers will certain change as a result of candidates’ activities.

Off the data:

For us who think President Museveni is the best president in Ugandan history, and one of the best the African continent has ever had, we believe he should and he will win.

But as a researcher, basing entirely on the data obtained from this survey, I am not underestimating Kyagulanyi. There is something going on with that candidate!

By Joel Isabirye