UGANDA’S GROWING ECONOMY, STRUGGLING CITIZENS: WHERE IS THE TENFOLD TRANSFORMATION?

By Fredrick ES Mutengeesa

An urgent call for economic accountability, a stronger shilling, transparent national reserves and inclusive development.

1. Introduction: Growth Must Be Felt, Not Merely Announced

Ugandans are frequently told that the economy is growing, GDP is increasing and the country is pursuing an ambitious Tenfold Growth Strategy intended to transform Uganda into a US$500 billion economy by 2040. This is a commendable national ambition. However, an important question remains: if our economy is growing, why do so many citizens struggle to feel that growth in their daily lives?

Why are households increasingly concerned about the cost of food, education, healthcare, transport and housing? Why do businesses struggle with expensive credit and imported inputs? Why do many young people complete their education without finding productive employment? And why does the weakening of the Uganda shilling continue to place additional pressure on households, businesses and Government projects?

These questions do not necessarily contradict the reported growth of the economy. Rather, they challenge us to examine the quality, distribution and practical impact of that growth.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced within a country. It does not automatically tell us whether household incomes are improving, employment opportunities are expanding or essential services are becoming more affordable. An economy can grow while some citizens become poorer in real terms, particularly when prices rise faster than incomes.

The true measure of economic progress is not simply how much wealth a country produces, but how effectively that wealth improves the lives of its people.

2. The Tenfold Growth Strategy: An Ambition That Must Deliver

Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy seeks to expand the economy substantially by 2040, with agro-industrialisation, tourism, mineral development, oil and gas, and science, technology and innovation serving as key drivers.

Achieving this ambition requires more than increasing the size of the national economy. It requires productive employment, stronger domestic industries, higher agricultural returns, competitive exports, affordable financing and responsible management of public resources.

Economic growth must translate into better household incomes, improved public services, lower vulnerability to poverty and greater opportunities for young people. If the economy expands but the majority of citizens continue to struggle with basic necessities, the country must examine not only the rate of growth but also its distribution and sustainability.

Population growth must also be considered. Total GDP can increase while average income per person grows much more slowly. Similarly, if household incomes rise by 5 per cent while living costs rise by 8 per cent, purchasing power declines despite the increase in nominal income.

The Government should therefore report not only GDP growth, but also growth in real income per person, productive employment, poverty reduction, household purchasing power and the effectiveness of public investment.

The Tenfold ambition must mean tenfold thinking about productivity, opportunity and national transformation—not merely a larger economic statistic.

3. The Weakening Shilling: A National Development Concern

The recent pressure on the Uganda shilling against the United States dollar deserves urgent attention. The implications extend far beyond the foreign-exchange market.

Uganda imports substantial quantities of petroleum products, machinery, medicines, technology and industrial inputs. When the shilling weakens, importers generally require more local currency to purchase the same dollar-denominated goods, unless international prices or other costs fall sufficiently to offset the difference.

For illustration, at an exchange rate of UGX 3,620 per dollar, a US$100,000 payment costs UGX 362 million. At UGX 4,000 per dollar, the same payment costs UGX 400 million—a difference of UGX 38 million before transaction charges.

The consequences cut across the economy:

• Households: Higher import-related costs can contribute to increased food, transport and other living expenses, eroding purchasing power.
• Education and healthcare: Imported equipment, medicines, laboratory supplies and technology may become more expensive.
• Agriculture and manufacturing: Imported fertilisers, machinery, fuel, chemicals and spare parts can raise production costs.
• Private businesses: Higher costs and exchange-rate uncertainty can discourage expansion, reduce profit margins and constrain job creation.
• Government: Foreign-currency debt servicing and projects requiring imported materials may cost more in shilling terms.

A weaker currency can benefit exporters who earn dollars, but the benefit depends on their production costs, imported inputs and contractual obligations. Depreciation is therefore neither universally harmful nor automatically beneficial; its overall impact depends on the structure and resilience of the economy.

The central concern is whether Uganda is strengthening its capacity to earn foreign currency sustainably through exports, tourism, value addition and competitive domestic production.

4. Parliament, the Bank of Uganda and Economic Accountability

The parliamentary debate over the Protection of Sovereignty Bill, 2026, provides an important lesson about the relationship between legislation and economic stability.

On 28 April 2026, Bank of Uganda Governor Michael Atingi-Ego appeared before parliamentary committees and raised concerns about the potential economic implications of the Bill as originally presented, including possible effects on foreign-exchange inflows, the shilling, foreign-exchange reserves and the independence of the central bank.

Parliament subsequently passed the Bill following amendments. Its published account records that the revised legislation included protections for lawful remittances, foreign direct investment, trade and humanitarian assistance.

It would therefore be inaccurate to claim that Parliament ignored every concern raised by the Governor. Nevertheless, an important question remains: how effectively are technical economic warnings incorporated into legislative decisions, and how are potential consequences monitored after laws are enacted?

The subsequent depreciation of the shilling does not, by itself, prove that the Bill caused the currency’s weakness. International oil prices, demand for dollars, export receipts, investor sentiment and domestic economic conditions also influence exchange rates.

However, the wider lesson is clear. Legislation intended to protect national interests must also be assessed for its implications for investment, trade, remittances and financial stability.

Economic sovereignty is not strengthened by political declarations alone. It is strengthened by credible institutions, sound decisions, productive capacity and the ability to withstand external shocks.

5. National Reserves: Uganda Must Know Its True Position

Government should undertake a comprehensive, independently verified assessment of the country’s financial assets, liabilities and essential strategic stocks.

The International Monetary Fund reported gross international reserves of approximately US$6.1 billion at the end of May 2026, equivalent to about 2.7 months of imports of goods and services. These figures provide an important reference point, but reserve adequacy must also be assessed against external obligations, liquidity requirements and potential economic shocks.

The proposed assessment should examine:

1. Foreign-exchange reserves: Their composition, valuation, liquidity, ownership and adequacy.
2. Government finances: Public cash balances, financial assets, liabilities, arrears and existing commitments.
3. External debt: Repayment schedules, foreign-currency exposure, interest costs and contingent liabilities.
4. Fuel stocks: Verified quantities, quality, storage capacity and estimated days of consumption covered.
5. Essential supplies: Relevant medical supplies, emergency food stocks, agricultural inputs and other strategic commodities.

These categories must be assessed under their appropriate legal and accounting frameworks. The Bank of Uganda’s operational independence must be respected, while the Auditor General and other authorised institutions should undertake their respective responsibilities.

Government should publish an accessible national economic and strategic-reserves report, subject to legitimate confidentiality requirements, explaining what the country holds, what it owes, what is available and what risks require attention.

The objective is not to suggest that national resources are missing or mismanaged. It is to establish a reliable baseline for planning, accountability and preparedness.

A country is better prepared for a crisis when it knows its financial position before the crisis arrives. Transparency is not weakness; it is a foundation of confidence.

6. Lessons from Other Economies

Experiences elsewhere demonstrate that economic resilience requires more than a strong headline GDP figure.

Singapore illustrates the importance of productive institutions, export competitiveness, investment in skills and disciplined management of public resources. Ghana’s economic difficulties demonstrate how currency depreciation, inflation and debt pressures can reinforce one another. Kenya’s experience shows how exchange rates respond to foreign-exchange flows, investor confidence, remittances and economic policy.

Uganda cannot simply copy another country’s economic model. Its circumstances are different. However, the underlying lessons are relevant: strengthen domestic production, diversify exports, manage public finances responsibly, maintain predictable regulations and invest in the people whose productivity drives economic transformation.

A country that imports much of what it consumes remains exposed to international price shocks. A country that exports primarily low-value commodities may miss opportunities to create more jobs and retain more value domestically.

Uganda must therefore move decisively towards value addition, competitive manufacturing, agricultural processing, tourism, technology and other productive sectors capable of generating sustainable foreign-exchange earnings.

7. What Government Must Do Now

Uganda needs a practical, coordinated response rather than panic or complacency.

First, protect macroeconomic stability. The Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Uganda should coordinate fiscal and monetary policy while respecting the central bank’s independence.

Secondly, strengthen national transparency.Publish independently verified assessments of reserves, public liabilities, strategic stocks and material economic risks.

Thirdly, increase domestic production and exports. Invest in agricultural productivity, agro-processing, manufacturing, tourism, skills and technology to reduce avoidable import dependence and generate sustainable foreign-exchange earnings.

Fourthly, improve public expenditure.Strengthen project appraisal, procurement, debt management and budget execution to ensure that public resources deliver measurable economic and social returns.

Fifthly, strengthen parliamentary oversight.Major legislation with significant economic implications should receive rigorous economic-impact assessments and appropriate post-enactment review.

Finally, make growth inclusive. Measure national progress through real incomes, productive employment, household purchasing power, poverty reduction, access to essential services and opportunities for young people.

Each priority should have measurable indicators, responsible institutions and clear reporting deadlines. Without these, ambitious policies risk remaining statements of intent rather than instruments of transformation.

8. Conclusion: Let Growth Become a Lived Reality

Uganda possesses enormous potential. Its people, natural resources, entrepreneurial energy, agricultural opportunities and strategic position within East Africa provide a strong foundation for development.

However, the country must confront the difference between economic growth as reported in statistics and economic progress as experienced by citizens.

A growing GDP is encouraging. New investment is valuable. Infrastructure development is necessary. Yet the ultimate test is whether these achievements create better jobs, stronger household incomes, affordable essential services, competitive businesses and greater economic security.

The weakening shilling makes this responsibility more urgent. The parliamentary debate over the Protection of Sovereignty Bill reminds us that national decisions must be assessed against their wider economic consequences. A comprehensive assessment of reserves and liabilities would improve transparency, preparedness and public confidence.

Uganda does not need alarmism, nor does it need to dismiss legitimate concerns. It needs evidence-based decisions, responsible leadership, productive investment and accountability for results.

If our economy is growing, let that growth be visible in the homes of our people, the prosperity of our farmers, the strength of our businesses, the opportunities available to our young people and the quality of our schools and hospitals.

If Uganda aspires to a tenfold economy, it must also aspire to a transformation in productivity, household welfare and economic resilience. If it seeks genuine economic sovereignty, it must strengthen its capacity to produce, export, save, manage public resources and withstand external shocks.

The measure of success is not simply where the shilling trades tomorrow or how large GDP becomes by 2040. It is whether Uganda becomes a country in which citizens can work productively, educate their children, access essential services, build enterprises and face the future with confidence.

Let economic growth be more than a national statistic. Let it become a lived reality for every Ugandan.

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By Fredrick ES Mutengeesa

Social Scientist | Chartered Secretary | Strategic Management and Development Practitioner