Indicators are clearer that Mr Yoweri Kaguta Museveni Tibuhaburwa will be voted massively by Youth – Akampa Tanbull
Well, I know this is the bitter truth or facts that most of my colleagues in civil society and opposition will find harder to believe! They want to keep hiding their heads in the sand!
But it is okay, these facts are important to all concerned Ugandan citizens including NRM and President Museveni’s supporters.
Let us focus on facts and reality on ground,
The nationwide youths elections should have given the opposition in Uganda, more especially the National Unity Platform (NUP), time to pose and reflect. But alas! They kept on playing on people’s minds on social media and mainstream media that they had massive support from youth!
Largely NUP or Hon Robert Kyagulanyi’s support is some sections of youths in
urban areas and in these areas, NUP it self has no structures but largely a section of flag bearers who are the same time coordinators of their areas, parish, sub county or Division. Meaning there is no way NUP can have formidable structures that FDC, DP, UPC all other opposition political parties have failed to have for all this time they have been in existence.
Besides, being new, the party has not yet had time to go on the ground and establish organizational structures to allow it to mobilize people to its cause. Elections are both emotional and mechanical but it is the mechanical (possession of structures) that gives candidates a decisive advantage.
Well, Uganda has 68,740 villages and NRM had fielded 47,378 candidates nationwide; NUP came a distant second with 1,433 (3.3% of the candidates NRM fielded), FDC third with 1,133, UPC 537 and DP 536.
This indicates that NRM/President Museveni already has 80% of votes from the registered voters who are youth.
In fact the independents in the youth structures have more votes than entire opposition combined.
Many Ugandans even at the lowest levels of local government prefer to run as independents than to associate themselves with opposition political parties. For example in Luuka District, independents are even more powerful than NUP, FDC…combined. They are the ones putting NRM on pressure in some areas and this we need to get to understand why.
Often, Ugandan elites prefer to sit and speculate, imagine and cook up explanations based on their prejudices and biases rather than on facts established through scientific methods like opinion surveys.
The opposition in Uganda seem disinterested in winning over people.
They know intuitively and through anecdotal evidence that there is
disaffection with President Yoweri Museveni’s long stay in power. But they wrongly assume that all those who are
dissatisfied with the status quo are enthusiastic supporters of the
opposition. Wrong!
There are many Ugandans dissatisfied with Museveni who want change. However, when it comes to elections many of these people do not show up to vote for many reasons.
Some are busy with their personal issues (tending to their gardens, shops, hair salons, barber shops, riding bikes, cooking, fetching water, gathering firewood, etc.,) while others are lazy, many apathetic believing that their vote won’t change anything, a belief Dr. Kizza Besigye had hammered home.
The opposition in Uganda lack grassroots infrastructure to mobilise these supporters to go out and vote.
There is another category of Ugandans dissatisfied with Museveni who do not see the
opposition as a viable alternative. (swing votes). These are sometimes disgruntled
Museveni supporters who need to be convinced to jump the NRM ship but still find themselves voting NRM and President Museveni again and again.
To improve its organisational depth, the opposition in Uganda need to unite as a broad coalition but this will not happen since each person wants to be a small god in his or her own tiny political room. As well egos will not enable opposition to unite, this give NRM/President Museveni an opportunity to continue consolidating the support and wining new hearts as well convincing some of the swing votes to give another mandate to President Museveni especially now that he has promised to secure the future!
Let the opposition continue eating each other – NUP cannibalising DP and FDC without making any dent on NRM.
NRM/Mr Yoweri Kaguta Museveni Tibuhaburwa remains steady fast, trusted and the way to a secured future than any other political party or presidential candidate respectively.
AKAMPA Tanbull
Political Analyst
akampabi@gmail.com
